OMG look it's ICM

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OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:25 am

Just wondering if anyone has a basic ICM strategy I can use while playing. I don't know much about ICM. Right now when I get into the money, Im using Nash while trying to avoid deeper stacks that can bust me. Any tips so I can maximize while leaning this Nash stuff?

180 plr icm question:
Does ICM start when we hit the money of just the final table?


Last edited by RWPKRPLR1 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:26 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Fri Mar 29, 2013 4:23 pm

Ive been thinking about doing a big article on ICM. Its a big subject and very misunderstood. I once heard moorman say his best attribute was his end game. but I could never understand how he could feel his edge comes from a part of the game that is so predictable and solved (math orientated).

Nowadays, I feel like i have a world class understanding of why the non mathematical is so important and how to use it. We can call it the BTP side of the coin.

Ill get to all that another time.

Basically nash wants us to call tighter at the final table, and shove looser, but that assumes everyone plays this way.

In reality we should prob call super tight and shove conservatively.

As for 180 they play just like mtts. We should respect the bubbles to some extent, especially when we are short because doubling 2 bbs to 4bbs isn't as important as min cashing since 4bbs isnt' super helpful either,

In sitngo bubbles this can be huge. We will make crazy tight folds 4 handed sometimes.

Of course if we are med stacked a bubbles profitability in response to so much fold equity makes up for missing the bubble, so in mtts we often take the shove in hope to ft such as the nature of a top heavy payouts structure.

Ill write something out in depth hopefully soon.









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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 5:00 pm

thx


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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:27 pm

not trying to create a system, i am just trying to read whatever i can on ICM, and came across this, what r ur thoughts?


as far as calling goes, it depends on your situation at the table, your stack size, the stack size of the shover etc. But a couple of easy rules to follow are.

1 - Big stack vs Big stack, you should only be calling here with honestly just QQ-AA, possibly AKs, nothing else. Especially if theres 2 BB and under stacks.

2 - Get it in somewhat light if you are the SS and some1 is making a position shove on you. Dont worry about ICM in these spots and go for a double up.

3 - When on a midstack, and theres still SS's at the table, you need to have a very tight calling range, dont be willing to call big stacks who shove on you with hands like KQ AJ etc.

As far as shoving goes

1 - BIG STACK, you have a lot of spots to abuse the other players, esp if they mid stacks and theres SS's, they will, in general, have a good ICM understanding and will be folding unless they have a hand like QQ-AA AKs.

2 - MID STACK, you need to shove tight if there's ss's... you can still abuse shove other mid stacks, but you cant be making ATC pos shoves for the most part.

3 - Short stack, get it in light, dont worry about ICM, go for chips.


Cliff notes

When on the big stack, abuse the **** out of smaller stacks, especially if theres some really short stacks at the table. But dont call another big stack, unless you have a premium (AKs,QQ-AA)

When on the mid stack, just play a little passive and wait for good spots to get your chips in. Im not saying fold everything but QQ-AA AK, but dont make those suited conn shoves, and dont make those A10 and KQ calls.

When on the short stack, your goal should be getting chips, get it in with a wide range and pray for the best

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:46 pm

everything sounds reasonable but you are really just giving an inaccurate version of the answer the calc would give you.

take a look at the issue this player has created because of their belief system..
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/198/mttsng/180m-final-table-5-left-1368461/

they have left themselves an inability to be reasoned with.
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:36 pm

that last post wasnt mine, it was from a poster on part time poker staking's forum. I forgot to cite my source there.

kinda feeling really dumb here, but im failing to see why you said "they have left themselves an inability to be reasoned with."

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:40 pm

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:that last post wasnt mine, it was from a poster on part time poker staking's forum. I forgot to cite my source there.

kinda feeling really dumb here, but im failing to see why you said "they have left themselves an inability to be reasoned with."
did you read the thread? don't feel dumb, no one ever understands me
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:47 pm

ya i did and all i seen was you trying to give him the answer, but he was to set on his ways from what others had told him him to do in the past or read on the net. finally he asked a question "So if I want to make the most amount of money, should I be using ICM from start of the final table to finish?" when you basically told him this earlier in the thread.

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:52 pm

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:ya i did and all i seen was you trying to give him the answer, but he was to set on his ways from what others had told him him to do in the past or read on the net. finally he asked a question "So if I want to make the most amount of money, should I be using ICM from start of the final table to finish?" when you basically told him this earlier in the thread.
yes someone gave him a shotty guideline of what icm answer should be, we can call that strat A. Now they learn about icm calculators that give answers based on actual information, call it strat b.

They are stuck on trying to mix the strategies together, and therefore 'double' adjust, to make icm decisions. Its a perversion of ICM, and there is no real way to explain it to them.
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:53 pm

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:
kinda feeling really dumb here, but im failing to see why you said "they have left themselves an inability to be reasoned with."
you understand this now?
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:02 pm

ya basically you can't teach an old dog new tricks.


fair enough, I wont look at ICM in this way, but rather i should learn it the proper way.

so i should start by understanding what icm is and why we use it.

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:15 pm

yup this whole thread is a great example why, not because you trying to learn more etc...that stuff is all good. But always question whether you are talking fundamentals or beliefs.
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:57 pm

Just wan to create a structure to learn all of this

1. What is ICM?

2. Why do we use $EV instead of cEV during the bubble and at the final table?

3. How does it work (how to do the math?)

Examples:

4. Are there other factors that influence ICM, and what do they do to the calculation?

Examples:

5. How to properly use HR for these calculations?

Examples:


Anything else I should add here

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:51 pm

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:Just wan to create a structure to learn all of this

1. What is ICM?

2. Why do we use $EV instead of cEV during the bubble and at the final table?

3. How does it work (how to do the math?)

Examples:

4. Are there other factors that influence ICM, and what do they do to the calculation?

Examples:

5. How to properly use HR for these calculations?

Examples:


Anything else I should add here
ya also what is optimal, and how do i know what is optimal
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:14 am

JodaB. wrote:
ya also what is optimal, and how do i know what is optimal
That's great

In my earlier post, I posted "Why do we use $EV instead of cEV during the bubble and at the final table?" as one of the things I need to answer. I assumed that we use it during the FT bubble and FT, but I don't think that's right, When do you switch to $ev?

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:17 pm

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:
JodaB. wrote:
ya also what is optimal, and how do i know what is optimal
That's great

In my earlier post, I posted "Why do we use $EV instead of cEV during the bubble and at the final table?" as one of the things I need to answer. I assumed that we use it during the FT bubble and FT, but I don't think that's right, When do you switch to $ev?
You are asking the same question that was asked in that thread.

Put the payouts in the calculator, if there are none put in 1 for the payouts.

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:35 pm

oops you are right! this was me wiping the slate clean and starting over from the start.Very Happy 

moving on

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:39 am

Well after a very busy week, I finally got time to work on a bit of this. I have a lot more to look at, but I thought I would post an update on where I’m at.

1.What is ICM?

The Independent Chip Model is a mathematical model which assigns a dollar value ($) to every tournament chip.

2.Why do we use $EV instead of cEV during the bubble and at the final table?

During the early and middle phases of a tournament our main goal is to accumulate chips so we can make it to a FT. Once at a FT or on a bubble of a FT where pay jumps are significant, we now have to take into account for tournament equity won or lost as well.

3.How does it work (how to do the math?)



I took the time to do the math on how an ICM calculator works out the $ amt or %eq of a tournament stack. Before  I did this, I didn’t know how it all worked,  I just knew that ICM assigned a value to a stack. Now I know that the value worked out by the calc is a combination of how often you will finish in each position. I could type out the formula, but it’s a waste of time IMO.  

Next I will be looking at the math behind our in game plays and how they affects your tournament equity…I will be using a hand I got wrong in the ‘tonight’s homework’ thread as an example,  stay tuned!

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 12:14 am

OK, I got some free time to work on this a bit more. So now I know how a ICM calculator calculates the stack values, next I needed to look at how this affects our in game play. I decided to use this hand from the homework thread..

PokerStars Hand #105029908888: Tournament #797480100, $13.77+$1.23 USD Hold'em No Limit - LevelXVIII (2000/4000) - 2013/10/04 12:53:12 PT
Table '797480100 18' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: forboon (21558 in chips)
Seat 3: IoonJup (28639 in chips)
Seat 5: drmask77 (114898 in chips)
Seat 6: w0rkiNgsou$$ (38506 in chips)
Seat 7: ZiomStefan (66399 in chips)
forboon: posts the ante 400
IoonJup: posts the ante 400
drmask77: posts the ante 400
w0rkiNgsou$$: posts the ante 400
ZiomStefan: posts the ante 400
IoonJup: posts small blind 2000
drmask77: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to forboon [8d Qs]
w0rkiNgsou$$: folds
ZiomStefan: folds
forboon: folds
IoonJup: folds
Uncalled bet (2000) returned to drmask77
drmask77 collected 6000 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6000 | Rake 0
Seat 1: forboon (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: IoonJup (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: drmask77 (big blind) collected (6000)
Seat 6: w0rkiNgsou$$ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: ZiomStefan folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Hopefully I'm not way off here, I read an article that worked out the ICM when in a calling situation (for another hand). so for this hand I tried to put this together myself since it is a shove spot, but I'm bit confused about the last part.

I started by working out (with the calc) the ICM values of the stacks, came up with a value of $260.64 for our stack(not going to post values of our villains stacks).

Then I looked at different outcomes and what the value of our stack would be after the hand was done. I came up with this, we just fold(-$0.24), we shove & everyone folds (+$32.80), we shove get called and we win(+$105.89), and finally we shove get called and lose(-$116.88).<---this last value was $260.64-$143.75(5th place prize)

(note the numbers are off a tiny bit, but still workable.The PT4 ICM calc has a small rounding error)

So now this where I'm falling off, I need to work how often each scenario happens. I have the numbers for when we get called against the BB (we win 36%, lose 64%), but I need a value for when everyone folds so I can complete the numbers. and also how to structure the equation. example is it (EvryO Flds + shove&win) + (shove&lose)???

After that i will compare that to what we can gain if we fold and someone else busts to give my conclusion on what to do here.

when it comes to the math I really suck!!!!

thank you for your time

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:04 am

well if they call x% then they fold 1-x%,

if you get fold for each player x y and z

then you get through x + y + z averaged between the 3

the math for averaging those % are a little complex but you can look it up.

its not my specialty either, ive done/seen the math before but just use the calc these days.

its good to run through it though to learn deeply what its about!
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 2:55 am

JodaB. wrote:well if they call x% then they fold 1-x%,

if you get fold for each player x y  and z

then you get through x + y + z averaged between the 3
Kool this is what i was thinking, but wanted to check with u.

JodaB. wrote:
its not my specialty either, ive done/seen the math before but just use the calc these days.
after i do a calling scenario from A-Z, we will work on understanding the numbers in the calc and how they correlate with ICM.

so if i did the math correct with the range I have assigned, it boils down to this....

((.75*32.80)+(.36*105.89))+(.64*-116.88)= -12.08 $ev

on avg when we shove this spot we lose -$12.08. if we fold, we give another player the opportunity bust before us, which makes us +$40 if they do. so chips won here are not as valuable as the money that could be won if we keep our chips.

vs. my original answer

2. A def shove here with two bad rec plrs..even if they were two good regs you
could profitably ship this, you just wouldn't make as much.

which is a OBV Cev answer!!

I know we won`t be doing this once i understand HR better, but when doing this i should always work all scenarios to get the exact answer, right? i only did the math for when we get called by the BB in this example.

sorry to drag this out, i just want to understand.

Also how am I doing?

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Mon Oct 14, 2013 12:56 pm

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:

Also how am I doing?
Ha im not strong enough to double check the work, seems your doing quite fine tho, you can check with holdem resources.

keep in mind their are a few adjustments such as blockers and overcalling that are tough to account for but it should end up being close though
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:06 pm

ok then we need to talk about HR a bit... can u confirm these settings



chipev is for non bubble/FT, malmuth-harville 'ICM' is for icm spots, what are the other two?

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  JodaB. on Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:12 pm

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:ok then we need to talk about HR a bit... can u confirm these settings



chipev is for non bubble/FT, malmuth-harville 'ICM' is for icm spots, what are the other two?
There is a thread on 2 plus 2 where the creator answers questions on all aspects, its a super good read and prob explains these.


In other words you tell me! Cause I kinda forget (only kinda, but too much to be an authority on it)
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Re: OMG look it's ICM

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:14 pm

HAHA not letting me be lazy. that thread is suppper long I'll be back Very Happy 

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Re: OMG look it's ICM

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