nearing the FT: 88 facing a utg 10bb shove

[AlreadyBeenVaped]

I'm currently a top 3 stack w/ 15-18 players remaining I believe.
Villain is 20/15 over 160 hands so decently active, however I do believe that at this stage of the tournament he will be shoving tighter than normal utg.

I feel like getting in this much of my stack at this stage of the tourney isnt a good thing.
I feel like I have lots more equity in the tourney than getting it in in this spot. I think I'm more dangerous with my current stack.
If I call and win, I can open more but I can still do that with my current stack.
If I call and lose, its tragic.

I'm kinda harping on this spot bc I think a lot of players make a mistake snap getting it in here bc it's profitable (77+, AJs+, AJ+ here according to Nash), but other factors, mainly our current stack manouvrability, are important to consider.



PokerStars Hand #105038738203: Tournament #794591300, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXVIII (75000/150000) - 2013/10/04 19:07:14 ET
Table '794591300 97' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: THE BAKER555 (2088758 in chips)
Seat 2: kombatus1991 (2966399 in chips)
Seat 3: GEOR78 (1678160 in chips)
Seat 4: blauhase13 (1179240 in chips)
Seat 5: marore78 (1581025 in chips)
Seat 6: koyf (1065920 in chips)
Seat 7: julesdAA (2210011 in chips)
Seat 8: clubbedonout (393321 in chips)
Seat 9: milanello01 (1375580 in chips)
THE BAKER555: posts the ante 15000
kombatus1991: posts the ante 15000
GEOR78: posts the ante 15000
blauhase13: posts the ante 15000
marore78: posts the ante 15000
koyf: posts the ante 15000
julesdAA: posts the ante 15000
clubbedonout: posts the ante 15000
milanello01: posts the ante 15000
GEOR78: posts small blind 75000
blauhase13: posts big blind 150000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to julesdAA [8c 8d]
marore78: raises 1416025 to 1566025 and is all-in
koyf: folds
julesdAA: folds
clubbedonout: folds
milanello01: folds
THE BAKER555: folds
kombatus1991: folds
GEOR78: raises 97135 to 1663160 and is all-in
blauhase13: folds
Uncalled bet (97135) returned to GEOR78

[JodaB.]

seems this would be close in nash calc. Since we are fairly ep ourselves its prob 99+ without icm thoughts. The was I look at ICM tho is first to look if there is an immediate pay jump, which I don't suppose there really is. If not I don't really adjust for icm. But since it is so late there is some consideration, and especially knowing that villain is a little tighter than usual since its late its prob a fold for sure.