Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

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Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:41 pm

Ok I need a double check/sanity check

we are talking 180s and backing

Std. deal is 50/50.

Player makes 20% roi at 8's / 2 if they are backed

but makes 30% roi at 2's

So the question is which is more profitable

so if 20% is x and 30% is y

then 8x/2  vs 2.5y

if 2 is z then we get

8x/z =2.5y

this will tell us what z needs to be to make player indifferent to backing or staying at 2s (will make equal profits)

z = 8x/2.5y


if we solve for z with 20% and 30% for x and y we get 20.8 %

thats the cut that it would have to be lower than for  players to want to get backed to move up. 20 not 50!!!!

Then if we assume one can play more 2's because they load faster lets say we have 3k 2's vs 2k 8's over a month we get:

z = 3.2 (.3/.2)(3000/2000) = 13.88%

The backers cut needs to be < 13.88% to make it worth if for the player to take a deal?
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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  sngking on Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:54 pm

Jesus what are you talking about,lol Just do 50/50 make er easy.Razz 

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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:58 pm

sngking wrote:Jesus what are you talking about,lol Just do 50/50 make er easy.Razz 
a player is better off to stay at lower stakes and make 100% unless the backer is willing to bring it down to 80/20. And don't call me jesus

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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Tue Oct 15, 2013 12:51 am

no there is more to this, i just gotta brew it.
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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Tue Oct 15, 2013 1:29 am

I'm not good with this at all, but I will give it a shot

To be even shouldn't it be a 70/30 split

(3000*2.50)*.3= 2250  

(2000*8 )*.2=3200, 3200*.7032 =2,250.24

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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Tue Oct 15, 2013 1:34 am

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:I'm not good with this at all, but I will give it a shot

To be even shouldn't it be a 70/30 split

(3000*2.50)*.3= 2250  

(2000*8 )*.2=3200, 3200*.7032 =2,250.24
no you are splitting it in the wrong way.

the question is what is the proper number to split the 8's profits that give us the same as the 2's.

its one number to make it equal the 2s
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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Tue Oct 15, 2013 1:47 am

See I sux at this shit

So who is the 80 an who is the 20? Question 

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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Tue Oct 15, 2013 1:55 am

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:See I sux at this shit

So who is the 80 an who is the 20? Question 
horse would be 80
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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:04 am

.80 would be 2560profit for the horse and that's more than the 2250 playing the 2's @100%

If that's not it I fucked up elsewhere and I'm prob no use to u here

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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:10 am

RWPKRPLR1 wrote:.80 would be 2560profit for the horse and that's more than the 2250 playing the 2's @100%

If that's not it I fucked up elsewhere and I'm prob no use to u here
oh ya when we add the fact that we can play more twos the split has to be like 13 87. is that right?
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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  RWPKRPLR1 on Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:52 am

Nope face palm! I thought you were comparing playing the 2's on your dime at higher volume to having a backer at the 8's playing a smaller volume.


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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  REEBS77 on Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:38 am

Something is wrong above I think....

If we look at the two options from a 1k game sample size, we would get the following:

A. 1000 games x $2.50 x 30% = $750 profit

B. 1000 games x $8.00 x 20% / 2 = $800 profit

Therefore, if you can guarantee the above ROIs, a 50/50 deal to move up is actually a ~ 6.66% increase to our long term profit ($50/$750 = 0.0666). That doesnt include for the volume of 2.50s vs 8s that we can play though....It just assumes we either play 2.50s or 8s.

Now show me where I screwed up.... lol @ grade 7 maths.

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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Tue Oct 15, 2013 12:45 pm

REEBS77 wrote: lol @ grade 7 maths.

grade 7 me would make so much fun of me for what i can't do these days with math ha.

Ya thats the sanity i needed, i still have some good ideas for this but i gotta brew it. This shit is awesome.

For example, lets say i was right and the backers are over charging ( i still might be).

If the player still wants to move up to learn and get experience, first they must compare the amount they 'save' by staying down with the cost of getting lessons that will give them the knowledge to move up and be more profitable.

So we can weigh these things mathematically.

Also the structure of backing vs how the games stakes are set up is important. That is depending on how high the stakes jump is, the backing deals can change and maybe become more standard, or implausible. This info would be useful for both the sites and the backers/players.

Formulas that have graphs to be analyzed.

My backer has a major in econ/math, so we are gonna have a lot of talks and get some of this sorted.

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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  REEBS77 on Tue Oct 15, 2013 1:22 pm

Yeah I am quite sure I would fail a highschool math test if I didn't have time to prepare/remember things. lol

This topic actually interests me quite a bit. Please keep this thread updated!
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Re: Smoke!!!!!!! and RW!!!! math help!!!

Post  JodaB. on Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:06 pm

REEBS77 wrote:Yeah I am quite sure I would fail a highschool math test if I didn't have time to prepare/remember things.  lol

This topic actually interests me quite a bit.  Please keep this thread updated!
see theres a nother thing. When a backing deal goes down, the player is assumed to be +ev. There is a size of roll then he will only need which gives plenty of room for a correct ds, for example perhaps an 8's player needs 3k behind.

its like a personal line of credit, and the backer must keep 3k in his account, to fuel the horse.

But once the horse splits 3k in profit, the backer can now take 3k and invest it and stil have 3k to fuel the horses ds

so the loan becomes secured.

I have to think about this more, but i think then the chop rate should go down.
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