Donk Betting

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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:46 am

REEBS77 wrote:Btw I hadn't read that article until just last night, so I'm not spewing cus of the article.
not you but many are no doubt ha.

 Maybe cus of squee's video tho lol.  And yah he admits we need to shut down turn, but the reason he's okay with doing that is cus he believes that he is making money from the flop play, regardless of the result when villian has a hand to continue with....
ya just watch out for context, im notorious for player high stakes strat at micro stakes pokerz. well i don't know what stakes you were watching but you get the idea.

Its true he ass is doing it because he feel he profits on the flop, but with little turns to bluff, I feel like you need a laser read to lead out into 2 spewy players at the final table, and feel happy you got him to fold an ace on a axxx board.
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:13 am

Damn, I aint gunna get anything done at work today.... lol

working on a sweet spreadsheet with results. Will link it up for review when I am done. From the few results I have gone thru, it is obvious to me that I used to only donk for value. I am approaching December in the results now, so more bluffs should come into play. Very Happy
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 1:09 pm

Sooo I have the data entered, just wanna fill in the flop textures, notes on villians, etc so we can discuss individual hands if we want. I have all the HHs obv... I will post the sheet tonight after its complete, but some interesting numbers....

How often people fold to my donk bets - 23.4%

How often my donk bet bluffs are succesful - 41.4%

How often I get folds when I donk for value (bad!!) - 27.7%

How often I get calls/raises when I am donking for value - 72.3%

How often am I donk betting for value - 69.1%

How often am I donking as a bluff - 30.9%

This is through the past two months or so, maybe a bit less. It includes 94 instances where I donk bet. Looking back, I think if I played all of these hands again, I would likely not donk a bunch of them (maybe ~15-20%?), but that is fine cus I was trying things out... As long as I learn and adapt going forward.
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Fri Jan 03, 2014 2:13 pm

what do you think the sample size SHOULD be ?
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 2:19 pm

JodaB. wrote:what do you think the sample size SHOULD be ?

I dont think that there is a correct answer to your question, as the more we have, the closer to actual.... But i can tell you that I wont be doing a spreadsheet with a bigger sample size Wink

However, I do think that after 91 hands, we can start to pull out some patterns. I know that the std dev could potentially be large on 91 hands. I really dont know how large it is though.
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Fri Jan 03, 2014 2:27 pm

REEBS77 wrote:
JodaB. wrote:what do you think the sample size SHOULD be ?

I dont think that there is a correct answer to your question, as the more we have, the closer to actual.... But i can tell you that I wont be doing a spreadsheet with a bigger sample size Wink

However, I do think that after 91 hands, we can start to pull out some patterns.  I know that the std dev could potentially be large on 91 hands.  I really dont know how large it is though.
i suspect its at least 1k  prob closer to 10k as a bulk overiview.

I suspect std dev renders your sample random but ill have to wait till later to explain.

edit also im taking this as we type http://academicearth.org/courses/statistics-110-probability/
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Fri Jan 03, 2014 3:00 pm

yeah I dont know how you would ever do that in terms of reviewing it. I dont know of any programs that will pull the appropriate information (bluff vs value, etc) to make any sort of analysis meaningful.

I know what you mean, and I always advocate being careful with HUD stats that have small samples, however even in as little as like 25 hands, we can start to gather info that is relevant. Patterns emerge. If someone folds the first 30 three-bet opportunities, I think we can assume they are not three bet bluffing, until they show us otherwise. 30 three bet opportunites isnt a lot, but I think it is worthy of considering at least if there are patterns.

At some point we have to look at our stats and say, ok.... I know I could be off by a few points here due to deviation, but we cant wait forever to try to solve this thing! Poker is always a game of missing information and we need to improvise. If we waited till 1,000 donking opportunities, either we would burn a LOT of money by donking in bad spots, or we would be waiting a long time to get the appropriate sample size. I tried to donk more than I thought would be good and in a month (only like 200 games or something though) i only have 91 hands to look at.

I think since its something that occurs much less often, we need to accept a smaller sample, in exchange for knowing we have a bit of error in our numbers.

I think I need to quit working for the day, this thread is making me think too much for a friday lol.
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:23 pm

REEBS77 wrote:yeah I dont know how you would ever do that in terms of reviewing it.  I dont know of any programs that will pull the appropriate information (bluff vs value, etc) to make any sort of analysis meaningful.
well its possible but ya really difficult, and you need a huge sample.


I know what you mean, and I always advocate being careful with HUD stats that have small samples, however even in as little as like 25 hands, we can start to gather info that is relevant.  Patterns emerge.  If someone folds the first 30 three-bet opportunities, I think we can assume they are not three bet bluffing, until they show us otherwise.  30 three bet opportunites isnt a lot, but I think it is worthy of considering at least if there are patterns.
this is true but doesn't apply to our subject tho, with small stats we can make some conjecture correctly, but here we are looking at a stat that needs a big sample.


At some point we have to look at our stats and say, ok.... I know I could be off by a few points here due to deviation, but we cant wait forever to try to solve this thing!
This is exactly what H has said to me about things like this. We'll we can't know, so we should just donk? If we don't know, then it can't be said to be profitable. Deviation is fine, and calcuable, but if its too much then its not useful.

 Poker is always a game of missing information and we need to improvise.
WHOOOOAAAA!

 If we waited till 1,000 donking opportunities, either we would burn a LOT of money by donking in bad spots, or we would be waiting a long time to get the appropriate sample size.
And how do you propose we solve this, by just donking anyways?

 I tried to donk more than I thought would be good and in a month (only like 200 games or something though) i only have 91 hands to look at.  
And out of those, which are good regs bad regs, tight regs pre tight regs post, loose regs pre loose regs post, which are early game, which are late game, which are dry flop which are wet? This is all going to effect the size of your needed sample.

I think since its something that occurs much less often, we need to accept a smaller sample, in exchange for knowing we have a bit of error in our numbers.
I think you need to think about what you just said here. Razz 
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:01 am

"I think you need to think about what you just said here."

Still thinking..... lol

Does your WHOAAA comment mean that you do not agree about poker being a game of missing information?  If all the information was there for us, then computers would have solved this game long before moneymaker.  IMO anyways.  

I guess we have to agree to disagree on this one.  I don't think you need as big of a sample as you do in order to review our play, and look for patterns in stats.  Moving on.... Razz

"This is exactly what H has said to me about things like this. We'll we can't know, so we should just donk? If we don't know, then it can't be said to be profitable."

I resent this!  lol  Seriously though, I am not saying that because we don't know, we should just donk anyways.  This whole thing is all just a big experiment for me almost.  I saw a video I really enjoyed, and learned from, so I tried it out for myself and wanted to use this thread as a means to get my thoughts down.  Im not saying that we should incorporate it yet, as I have not really nailed anything down yet.... trying to do research though so that I have a small sample to review and draw upon for these discussions.  And that research involves getting out there and trying it out!   How can you say its not profitable if you haven't tried (and not many others have either) after all??  You'd be guessing sir.   affraid
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  Smoker.B. on Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:48 am

Shocked Shocked 

 affraid 
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Mon Jan 06, 2014 12:04 pm

REEBS77 wrote:"I think you need to think about what you just said here."

Still thinking..... lol

Does your WHOAAA comment mean that you do not agree about poker being a game of missing information?  If all the information was there for us, then computers would have solved this game long before moneymaker.  IMO anyways.  
I'm not sure what you've said here really is true. What you have done here is put out a conjecture that, you could solve poker if you could see the other persons cards. I'm not sure it really works like that, I think its really putting unrelated things together.

I guess we have to agree to disagree on this one.  I don't think you need as big of a sample as you do in order to review our play, and look for patterns in stats.  Moving on.... Razz
We can make best guess but, what I see from many players is over valuing low samples. I don't think you should move on here, I think you should listen how others talk and really think about what it means when they say "Well its a small sample... BUT STILL!!!"

"This is exactly what H has said to me about things like this. We'll we can't know, so we should just donk? If we don't know, then it can't be said to be profitable."

I resent this!  lol  Seriously though, I am not saying that because we don't know, we should just donk anyways.  This whole thing is all just a big experiment for me almost.  I saw a video I really enjoyed, and learned from, so I tried it out for myself and wanted to use this thread as a means to get my thoughts down.  Im not saying that we should incorporate it yet, as I have not really nailed anything down yet.... trying to do research though so that I have a small sample to review and draw upon for these discussions.  And that research involves getting out there and trying it out!   How can you say its not profitable if you haven't tried (and not many others have either) after all??  You'd be guessing sir.   affraid

I'm all for experimenting and learning, but what you have said is if we know we can't analyze it mathematically because the sample is too small then we should try it physically. Lemme put your words like this, "if we can't use the data then lets use empiric evidence". Think about this, you are saying if we can't see it off the table in all hands, then we are going to figure it out ON the table in a few hand vacuum?

If you can't use the data over time, then using a smaller set at the table is going to be less accurate.

There is def a time and a place, we outlined all the reasons NOT to donk lead which is a good thing, it leaves a few times we can consider BUT we cannot say that just because poker is a game of partial info that we must try things out...the TRUTH is, if we can't support a play with stats or math, then we cannot claim it to be +ev.

All in all what you should remember is the reason the call it a donk bet is because donks tend to gravitate towards it. The time it is correct are low and rare, and we shouldn't spend to much time trying to win a pokerz through donking.

Also if you want some sample evidence look through H, he spent 3 years donking 3 streets from the blinds every time. I suspect he still has a large donk %
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  Smoker.B. on Mon Jan 06, 2014 3:53 pm

quit tournament poker

H bet 0% of the time  Neutral 
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Mon Jan 06, 2014 3:59 pm

Smoker.B. wrote:quit tournament poker

H bet 0% of the time  Neutral 
ah no tourneys these days? and ur not a fan of donking out of the blinds any more?
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  Smoker.B. on Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:52 pm

JodaB. wrote:
Smoker.B. wrote:quit tournament poker

H bet 0% of the time  Neutral 
ah no tourneys these days?  and ur not a fan of donking out of the blinds any more?

play plo cash on weekends when I have time

no time for mtt poker

 Mad 
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:33 am

[quote="JodaB."] I'm not sure what you've said here really is true.  What you have done here is put out a conjecture that, you could solve poker if you could see the other persons cards.  I'm not sure it really works like that, I think its really putting unrelated things together. [quote]

No I didnt say that.  There are other parts to the equation too.  Like what that person will do with those cards.  No play is guaranteed because we can never know what the opponent will do.  Case and point, the guy who folded quads in the one drop.

[quote="JodaB."] We can make best guess but, what I see from many players is over valuing low samples.  I don't think you should move on here, I think you should listen how others talk and really think about what it means when they say "Well its a small sample... BUT STILL!!!"[quote]

Yeah i hear yah, not sure really what I think... lol  I know what you are saying.  I just think there is some merit to 100 donking attempts.  Definitely not 100% accurate, but not really worth throwing away altogether cus its not 100000 attempts.  ya know?

[quote="JodaB."] I'm all for experimenting and learning, but what you have said is if we know we can't analyze it mathematically because the sample is too small then we should try it physically.  Lemme put your words like this, "if we can't use the data then lets use empiric evidence".  Think about this, you are saying if we can't see it off the table in all hands, then we are going to figure it out ON the table in a few hand vacuum?[quote]

I think maybe i misconveyed my message, cus I am not saying this.  I don't think I am anyways.  Well maybe i was, i dunno.... lol.... Im gunna try to explain, but i think this thread just confused the hell out of me.  

I am saying that if there is no sample to draw upon, we need to create a sample.  We shouldnt just throw out the idea because no one has tried it.  Right? (i know you arent saying this exactly, but sorta). If we have an action that we think could be profitable, but no one ever does it and so as a result, we have no sample db to look at, we need to create a db by trying it and reviewing results.  Experiments always include a hypothesis, experiment, and review/analysis stage.  So with no sample, we would make our hypothesis, then do some experimenting, and then review the experiment, knowing that it might not be perfect until other experiments confirm it.  The process is repeated until it can be reasonably assumed to be correct.  That is what I would be doing here, or trying to anyways.   i think.   Suspect 



[quote="JodaB."] There is def a time and a place, we outlined all the reasons NOT to donk lead which is a good thing, it leaves a few times we can consider BUT we cannot say that just because poker is a game of partial info that we must try things out...the TRUTH is, if we can't support a play with stats or math, then we cannot claim it to be +ev.[quote]

But then you cannot claim it is -ev either Wink So why stop there?


[quote="JodaB."] All in all what you should remember is the reason the call it a donk bet is because donks tend to gravitate towards it.  The time it is correct are low and rare, and we shouldn't spend to much time trying to win a pokerz through donking.[quote]

Yeah it was labelled a donk bet years ago when only donks did it.  Since then donks learned that you are making a losing play for the most part, and they stopped doing it.  Donk betting is basically non existent now, and as such, ppl who pay attention to it are surprised to see it from a reg like us, and they make mistakes.   Wink


Last edited by REEBS77 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : i cant figure out the quotes :()
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Wed Jan 08, 2014 1:00 pm

I am saying that if there is no sample to draw upon, we need to create a sample.
I'm saying this is not a good strategy for poker, and we can make way bigger gains working on our game in other ways. If we find we don't have a sample for something it might be because the past player field has realized we shouldn't do it. Now that said you know I'm all about creativity, but if you need like a 1-10k sample for something, are we really doing ourselves a service, or have we just stepped back into old thinking?

But then you cannot claim it is -ev either Wink So why stop there?
Ya this is what i am saying, if we don't know then we don't make the adjustment, its not that you don't know, and I don't know, therefore we do it. And I'm suggesting your not going to get a proper sample without busting your roll on donk bets, intuitively that tells us its prob not the best idea and we can concentrate on improving our game in other bigger ways.

I dont' know who this is, whether they are a crusher or not, but its a coach from some site, watch this, you'll be like "ha I told joda so", and then lemme know and we'll watch it together and discuss this concept and discuss coaching as concept as well.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/186/two-plus-two-videos/new-video-creative-play-turbo-poker-1405322/
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:15 pm

ok watched it.  pirat 
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:16 pm

today i donk led into a weak reg hu on a q52 rb board with like jto or something.

They folded.
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  REEBS77 on Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:32 am

JodaB. wrote:today i donk led into a weak reg hu on a q52 rb board with like jto or something.  

They folded.

Pwned!
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  Smoker.B. on Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:51 am

JodaB. wrote:today i donk led into a weak reg hu on a q52 rb board with like jto or something.  

They folded.

 Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil 
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  Smoker.B. on Tue Feb 11, 2014 11:01 am

joda how come u can H bet and its ok but when anyone else does its  Mad Mad 

 Question 
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Re: Donk Betting

Post  sngking on Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:04 pm

Smoker.B. wrote:joda how come u can H bet and its ok but when anyone else does its  Mad Mad 

 Question 

Joda has seen the light! Razz 

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Re: Donk Betting

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