The long run

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The long run

Post  Superman on Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:38 pm

We talk about plus ev plays making money in the long run all the time. But, does this really apply to MTT's? Does our "long run" end at the zero chip point, then restart with a new tourney? When we add/multiply all of our odds when we are all-in in a tourney, doesn't the result end up with a seemingly impossible number?

For example, 1st hand we are counting ..we are a 2-1 dog, but have pot odds to call, second time around, 2-1 dog but have pot odds to call, third time, "wow, getting 4-1 and have the equity" but we are a 3-1 dog again... How many times can we get away with this before being knocked out of a tournament?

This is just something I am currently not wrapping my head around very well right now...


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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:19 pm

Superman wrote:We talk about plus ev plays making money in the long run all the time. But, does this really apply to MTT's? Does our "long run" end at the zero chip point, then restart with a new tourney? When we add/multiply all of our odds when we are all-in in a tourney, doesn't the result end up with a seemingly impossible number?

For example, 1st hand we are counting ..we are a 2-1 dog, but have pot odds to call, second time around, 2-1 dog but have pot odds to call, third time, "wow, getting 4-1 and have the equity" but we are a 3-1 dog again... How many times can we get away with this before being knocked out of a tournament?

This is just something I am currently not wrapping my head around very well right now...

This is a question that many player have and they don't even know it. Very few people truly understand this, and its really the fundamental root of what poker is. I'll try to explain but I hope you continue to ask questions until its clear and that others do to.

Also I'm often blamed for talking down to people and students of different arts. But I really rarely do this, I just am a sucker for fundamentals. You can always tell the intermediate players from the great players by their fundamentals. This means if we are to exploit intermediate players we will do it by exploiting the missing basics.

The easiest most direct way to talk about +ev spots (after all this is really just a question about ev) is to ask if we want it to be likely we have more chips at then end of the hand or less chips. Clearly if its more likely we will have more chips then we will take the spot.

Furthermore if we are always taking spots where we are more likely to have more chips than less at the end of the hand, then we can expect to do well in poker in general.

But we cloud our judgment by thinking about separate tournaments. We create a religious belief about how time and poker work together. Even sometimes we know its wrong, we still feel folding for a better spot is a real thing. I'm constantly telling players why fold a +ev spot for a better spot when you can take both spots.

We can break these habitual beliefs by looking at our game as a whole and think about our poker career. We do this with a question: Do you want to win THIS tournament, or do you want to win more tournaments than the intermediate players? If you want to win this tournament sure maybe you can fold to the win, but if we want to win in the long term then we need to take every profitable spot we get.

So in this way we learn to see the game different than others. I do have a theory to talk about some other time in depth. Players at different levels of the game are actually playing a different game. Fish at entry level, are really just playing slots, pure gambling. Intermediate players often play a game of how to match TAG strategy. They are oblivious to the game and simply try and play the strategy they know.

Some players play to win money, I generally used to play to learn. Learning equals winning money, but people don't play that game. I only played everyday to get some hand history questions to bring to pfc or nash calculator. I didn't play to win, that changed the game for me.

Another concept that is important to understand but most will ignore me and think im crazy. We are destined to win a certain % of tournaments no matter how good we are. Lets say its 1 in 1500. We dont' know which tourney we will win, however, in this particular tournament you are invincible. No matter what you do you will never bust. You are destined to make mistakes, but they will often work out and they will never be fatal. You will get the impression you are a hero, everything will go right and if it doesn't it will work out anyways.

We really need to grasp this for many reasons that aren't obvious. People get hung up on funny think like a misdeal that cost a guy his Aces and another player had kk so he woulda doubled up. So what. Flop coulda came KKx. If it was your time then your gonna win anyways.

People talk about you can't min raise fold 9bbs, cause you lose all fold equity for the next hands. So what? If its your tournament you can still win with 1 bb. And thats not a stretch thats std. So I think people should spend some time with this concept.

Lastly, we need to think of our tournaments sideways, for example we are on the button with 10bbs. Lets look at every tourney we ever played. Did we take every +ev spot? If so we make a ton of chips in that spot. If we look at tournaments sideways and in each spot we always do whats right, we will increase the amount of tourneys we are destined to win.

Planning on losing every tournament you play as soon as possible, by getting your chips in with +ev spots and losing. If you do this you will increase the amount of tournament in which you get it in bad and ship the tournament anyways



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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:30 pm

JodaB. wrote:

But we cloud our judgment by thinking about separate tournaments. We create a religious belief about how time and poker work together. Even sometimes we know its wrong, we still feel folding for a better spot is a real thing. I'm constantly telling players why fold a +ev spot for a better spot when you can take both spots.

We can break these habitual beliefs by looking at our game as a whole and think about our poker career. We do this with a question: Do you want to win THIS tournament, or do you want to win more tournaments than the intermediate players? If you want to win this tournament sure maybe you can fold to the win, but if we want to win in the long term then we need to take every profitable spot we get.

If we look at it by winning THIS tournament, and then take the next one by itself, don't we ultimately win more tournaments?

I guess where I am going with this...is it worth marginal +EV if it could cost us our tournament life?? That would have been a better way to pose the question I guess..



Another concept that is important to understand but most will ignore me and think im crazy. We are destined to win a certain % of tournaments no matter how good we are. Lets say its 1 in 1500. We dont' know which tourney we will win, however, in this particular tournament you are invincible. No matter what you do you will never bust. You are destined to make mistakes, but they will often work out and they will never be fatal. You will get the impression you are a hero, everything will go right and if it doesn't it will work out anyways.

Ignored...yes. lol Crazy..meh, not really. I just don't buy "destiny". I think it's just a good variance day, and yes, it happens.







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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:16 am

Superman wrote:

If we look at it by winning THIS tournament, and then take the next one by itself, don't we ultimately win more tournaments?
No we don't. We lose more because we begin to value our survival and start folding in profitable spots.

You have 2 choices, you can either worry about THIS tournament survival and forgo maximizing the tournaments you win overall. Or you can ignore survival in THIS tournament and maximize the amount of tourneys you win in your life.

Trust me you aren't worried about todays tournament, you are worried about your overall game.


I guess where I am going with this...is it worth marginal +EV if it could cost us our tournament life?? That would have been a better way to pose the question I guess..
You shouldn't be asking this question imo.


Ignored...yes. lol Crazy..meh, not really. I just don't buy "destiny". I think it's just a good variance day, and yes, it happens.


No you need to change you belief to this ;p You are destined to win the tournament that you win, therefore we should charge ahead without strategy without fear. Losing our stack should not matter.

One thing that will mess you up is when I play 180's i know longer look at stack sizes of opponents behind. Its mathematical incorrect to do so like 90% of the time (that number is made up).

Its important as we progess that we allow ourselves to view the game differently




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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:20 am

So if you knew for fact that the first 5 hands of every tournament were going to be coin flips, but you were ahead in every one...you would take them all? (theoretically you are covered in each one) That's about 3% chance that you make it through? (at 51% fave if I did that math right..def. not my strong suit.)

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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:24 am

JodaB. wrote:


No you need to change you belief to this ;p You are destined to win the tournament that you win, therefore we should charge ahead without strategy without fear. Losing our stack should not matter.

Might be pushing the envelope a bit here?
I should push all in every hand, every tournament...because I am destined to win some of them? What is the point of plus ev spots then? I am not sure I know when to take you seriously...lol


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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:26 am

Superman wrote:
JodaB. wrote:


No you need to change you belief to this ;p You are destined to win the tournament that you win, therefore we should charge ahead without strategy without fear. Losing our stack should not matter.

Might be pushing the envelope a bit here?
I should push all in every hand, every tournament...because I am destined to win some of them? What is the point of plus ev spots then? I am not sure I know when to take you seriously...lol

no my point is if you push every hand you will eventually win a tournament
I am being dead serious, when you win a tournament its not because you played well, its because that was your tourney.

Playing well doesn't win THIS tournament, it wins more tournament than people who don't play well.
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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:19 am

Superman wrote:So if you knew for fact that the first 5 hands of every tournament were going to be coin flips, but you were ahead in every one...you would take them all? (theoretically you are covered in each one)
yes will take 5 plus ev all in spots. Will be happy doing it in the first 5 hands rather than the last five hands (because of icm).

One thing to note if you double up first hand then you are no longer risking your tourney life.

This concept you are chasing here is one that you need to put to rest, its our very poker foundation. So don't give up on understanding it.

To go one further Vekked taught me because of beluga whale post I believe, that if the other player is a fish then we need to take any coinflip 50% even vs them.



That's about 3% chance that you make it through? (at 51% fave if I did that math right..def. not my strong suit.)
first we have to remember not to think about wining the pot or not. Its about winning the pot AND how much we win. We weighed those things out and decided in the long run its worth it.


So think about 10 Tournaments we have ak and in bb first hand, folds to sb who shoves and shows his hand. We are 51%.

We call in all 10 tournaments.

More often than not we expect to have more chips in each tournament than we started. Given the choice to have more chips on average in all tournament or less chips, we always take the more chips (in non icm type spots).

Heres the secret: after 1000 mtts, the person that collected the most chips, will be the luckiest one as far as destiny goes.
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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:23 am

Superman wrote:
Might be pushing the envelope a bit here?
I should push all in every hand, every tournament...because I am destined to win some of them? What is the point of plus ev spots then? I am not sure I know when to take you seriously...lol

no no that would be silly. we don't just want to win 1 tournament from randomness. We want to maximize the amount of tournaments we win.

to do that we try to gain 'chips on average'. We can never gain 'chips', chips are fake, how often do you see the early game chip leader bust before the money? Or you have a huge stack one minute and the next your out? Chips mean nothing, but if you play to increase your 'chips won on average' then you will generally always have the biggest stack.

If you play to preserve your survival, you will find you always have a small stack and you eventually lose with aces to KK
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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:38 am




Chips mean nothing, but if you play to increase your 'chips won on average' then you will generally always have the biggest stack.
So there is a strategy and it's not just random destiny. tongue

One thing to note if you double up first hand then you are no longer risking your tourney life.

yeah, I mis wrote that...I meant to say..for this example, we will be covered in all subsequent coin flips..as we got moved to another table for the next hand and someone else doubled up the first hand as well, so they had us covered...and so on.... Twisted Evil

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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:45 am

JodaB. wrote:
Superman wrote:So if you knew for fact that the first 5 hands of every tournament were going to be coin flips, but you were ahead in every one...you would take them all? (theoretically you are covered in each one)
yes will take 5 plus ev all in spots. Will be happy doing it in the first 5 hands rather than the last five hands (because of icm).

One thing to note if you double up first hand then you are no longer risking your tourney life.

This concept you are chasing here is one that you need to put to rest, its our very poker foundation. So don't give up on understanding it.

To go one further Vekked taught me because of beluga whale post I believe, that if the other player is a fish then we need to take any coinflip 50% even vs them.



That's about 3% chance that you make it through? (at 51% fave if I did that math right..def. not my strong suit.)
first we have to remember not to think about wining the pot or not. Its about winning the pot AND how much we win. We weighed those things out and decided in the long run its worth it.


So think about 10 Tournaments we have ak and in bb first hand, folds to sb who shoves and shows his hand. We are 51%.

We call in all 10 tournaments.

I am referring to one tournament, the first five hands in a row...the odds of making it through 5 coin flips in a row are minute.. (3% = .51^5) .so, is it really worth that very minimal +ev several times in a row? If we pass on just one of the coin flips, our odds of making it through double... (.51^4) to a whopping 6%

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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:05 pm

Superman wrote:


I am referring to one tournament, the first five hands in a row...the odds of making it through 5 coin flips in a row are minute.. (3% = .51^5) .so, is it really worth that very minimal +ev several times in a row? If we pass on just one of the coin flips, our odds of making it through double... (.51^4) to a whopping 6%
Yes but your math is not relevant to the game.

Lets say we have 1000 tournaments faced with this 5 time all in at 51% (I did this fast so there might be mistakes)

1st.
500 tournaments we bust
500 tournaments we double our starting stack

2nd. 250 tournaments we go back down to starting
250 tournaments we add a 3rd starting stack

3rd 125 tournaments we bust
125 tournaments we go to a double starting stack
125 tournaments we go down to a double starting stack
125 tournaments we have a quadruple starting stack

4th 125 tournaments we go down to a starting stack
125 turnstone we go up to a triple starting stack
62 tournaments we go down to a triple starting stack
62 tournaments we go up to a 5 times starting stack

5th 62 tournaments we bust
62 tournaments we go up to double starting
62 tournaments we go down to double starting
62 tournaments we go up to a quad starting stack
31 tournaments we go down to double starting stack
31 tournaments we go upto a 4 times starting
31 tournaments we go down to a 4 times starting stack
31 tournament we go up to a 6 times starting stack

so we are in 300 tourneys with starting stacks between double starting and 6 times starting.


So the question is what is the better deal, keeping our starting stack in 1000 tournaments or, busting 700 and have 300 with between double to 6times starting. the answer is we already did the math, and survival is not in the formula.

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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:04 pm

But the math IS somewhat relevant... Let's put it in this perspective...maybe it isn't the first five hands in a row, but just 5 hands over the course of the game we get our money in with only 51% equity, and we ARE covered by villain each time, which really isn't that unheard of.

Out of 1000 games, we are only left in 30 of them.
We don't take one of those minimal ev spots and we are in 60 of those tournaments still.
Effectively this doubles our chance at destiny.
Then, Let's say we know villain is on broadway and we have 66,..but we (incorrectly) decide to fold. We have just boosted our shot to 26ish% of surviving..

I still feel like by reducing (not eliminating) minimal ev shots we can effectively boost our shots at more final tables and thus winning more tournaments...

beat me up some more..lol

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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:21 pm

Superman wrote:But the math IS somewhat relevant... Let's put it in this perspective...maybe it isn't the first five hands in a row, but just 5 hands over the course of the game we get our money in with only 51% equity, and we ARE covered by villain each time, which really isn't that unheard of.

Out of 1000 games, we are only left in 30 of them.
We don't take one of those minimal ev spots and we are in 60 of those tournaments still.
Effectively this doubles our chance at destiny.
Then, Let's say we know villain is on broadway and we have 66,..but we (incorrectly) decide to fold. We have just boosted our shot to 26ish% of surviving..

I still feel like by reducing (not eliminating) minimal ev shots we can effectively boost our shots at more final tables and thus winning more tournaments...

beat me up some more..lol
I won't beat you up, you need this conversation badly. One time 1 of my students the only one other than costanza (who doesn't listen yet ;p) literally told me he was going to slit my throat. 15minutes later he admitted what I was saying was exactly what he needed to hear, and there was no better way for me to say it to him.

I won't say that for here but keep it in mind. I am unorthodox we all know that.

I few things our roi%, which is really our profit over time, is almost a direct correlation to our accumulated +ev spots and +$ev spots. Survival isn't in the formula.

The blinds are a ticking clock, we don't have our stack, our stack is depleting each hand on average. If we fold in these spots you talk about, we don't make enough on average to out pass the blinds.

It would be best if you took this as faith until you believe in it for real.

Also keep in mind we make more money for 1sts on average than the other spots often its not a level payout.


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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:39 pm

we need about 7.2 double ups to win a 180 man
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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:17 pm

JodaB. wrote:we need about 7.2 double ups to win a 180 man

But these aren't necessarily double ups, many of the said chips are steals and better than 60% equity spots..

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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:31 pm

Superman wrote:
JodaB. wrote:we need about 7.2 double ups to win a 180 man

But these aren't necessarily double ups, many of the said chips are steals and better than 60% equity spots..
so we don't even need near 7double ups to ship a tourney?
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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:02 pm

this might not be what you want to hear, but possible we need to start lower and look at EV and Gbux concepts. If there is a twisted fundamental there, then we might not be able to fully grasp the illusions of survival.
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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:40 pm

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/
$3.19+$0.31

Stacks:
UTG 1,500 75bb
UTG+1 3,000 150bb
MP1 1,500 75bb
MP2 3,000 150bb
MP3 1,500 75bb
Hero (CO) 3,000 150bb
BTN 1,500 75bb
SB 1,500 75bb
BB 1,500 75bb

Blinds: 10/20

Pre-Flop: (30, 9 players) Hero is CO Ac Kh
3 folds, MP2 goes all-in 3,000, 1 fold, Hero goes all-in 3,000, 3 folds

Flop: As 8h Qc (6,030, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: 7h (6,030, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: 6c (6,030, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: 6,030
MP2 shows a pair of Sevens
Kc 7s
Hero shows a pair of Aces
Ac Kh

Hero wins 6,030 (net +3,030)

MP2 lost 3,000
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Re: The long run

Post  Superman on Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:21 pm

haha...even though I brought up this discussion..and questioned it....I am never folding that spot either.

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Re: The long run

Post  JodaB. on Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:58 pm

Every time you double up you earn a free man.
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Re: The long run

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