let's see how bad this really was..

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let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Sun Mar 03, 2013 11:03 pm

PokerStars Hand #94981259626: Tournament #709020010, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (6000/12000) - 2013/03/03 18:31:31 PT [2013/03/03 21:31:31 ET]
Table '709020010 1898' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: rasek26 (659027 in chips)
Seat 2: 1KaTiLi (309539 in chips)
Seat 3: DennisBC (262532 in chips)
Seat 4: Poltinaa (287219 in chips)
Seat 5: WRUSLANDW (233464 in chips)
Seat 6: Crimsonshed (559513 in chips)
Seat 7: lucartist (169670 in chips)
Seat 8: jrxx1907 (311605 in chips)
Seat 9: tsoum7 (39240 in chips)
rasek26: posts the ante 1200
1KaTiLi: posts the ante 1200
DennisBC: posts the ante 1200
Poltinaa: posts the ante 1200
WRUSLANDW: posts the ante 1200
Crimsonshed: posts the ante 1200
lucartist: posts the ante 1200
jrxx1907: posts the ante 1200
tsoum7: posts the ante 1200
1KaTiLi: posts small blind 6000
DennisBC: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DennisBC [7s 8s]
Poltinaa: folds
WRUSLANDW: folds
Crimsonshed: calls 12000
lucartist: folds
jrxx1907: folds
tsoum7: folds
rasek26: folds
1KaTiLi: raises 24000 to 36000
DennisBC: raises 225332 to 261332 and is all-in
Crimsonshed: folds
1KaTiLi: calls 225332

So when it gets to me there is 76800 in the pot. Villain is aggressive, has been 3 betting a lot at this table..has folded to some 4 bet shoves, and has called some 4 bet shoves.. I would suggest he is 3 betting about 10-15% and calling off probably only 5%??

Against 5% we run about 30% and against his specific hand, we run about 40%.. He is calling 225,332 to win 338132.. against a range that he should think is quite narrow...I haven't shown many hands and they have all been strong.

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Sun Mar 03, 2013 11:23 pm

I think this means he is folding 60% (2/3 rds) of his hands that we rejam our stack at..with the given chips in the pot..I think this is fine??

I know at the time, I thought to myself...if he (that specific villain) opens or 3bets, we are just jamming as he has to fold unless he has a monster and we do alright against the AK's and AQ's...I wasn't even concerned with the other guy as he has limp folded a ton of hands.

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Sun Mar 03, 2013 11:41 pm

But maybe the real question should be....why? Why jam here? If my thought train is right...because it's plus EV??

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Sun Mar 03, 2013 11:51 pm

Now I am thinking ICM wise though..was it correct?? Joda...quit playing and start teaching...sheesh Wink

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  JodaB. on Mon Mar 04, 2013 1:23 am

Firstly you have reads on his 3betting but this is an iso Wink

so you are in the sb, action is on you, and there is the bb, the limper, and the iso player to act after you.

We can imagine we are in the cut off and there are three players left to act and you shove....is this +ev? very very very thin.

But these players aren't on atc here, since the limper isn't limping atc, and the iso'er is iso'ing even less.

I don't think you can suggest a player is iso'ing 15% unless you really know him, and some goes with his calling range, we can guess but making moves based on guesses isn't going to be profitable.

ICM isn't very strong here at all but it still won't like shoving over 3 players and 2 with somewhat stronger ranges than atc.

Here you are essentially 4bet bluffing (its technically a 3bet) certainly not for value. so your range is going to be most bw, all pairs, and 78s 89s t9s, and perhaps t8s, j9s.

4bet bluffing in general will be with a polarized range in which we can raise fold. We will very seldom jam a 4bet with a wide extended value type range, as we have to have a clear read that villain is 3betting (or isoing) with enough air to make it profitable.

I would suggest here 77+ KQo, A9s, ATo is our maximum range given reads and the hand.

Also when deciding if people are 3bet/folding enough, ie observed hands, we need to ask ourselves, were all these hands late game? Were they against you, good players, bad players? Were they in position, or out? is his range polarized or extended value?

I think that covers it. Just to be blunt, I would never shove that wide and I'm the loosest winning 20bbs player in the game I think.
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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:27 am



I am the BB, so I only have the limper and the raiser...

Like I say, I am not concerned about the limper, I don't think he is ever calling. He has been very active, limp folding a lot of hands, and raising some as well, the ones he has raised have been shown on several occasions and were strong...which, leads me to believe he is not calling here.

Our raiser, again, has been very active in say...the last 10 orbits or so....and while not on any two cards, is (I think) only gonna continue with a small portion of his hands.. (ak, of course, being one of them) and he has been picking at a few stacks in particular (weaker players) and I know he sees the limper folding as well..

Hmm..I figured the value of the pot was worth the steal, and yeah, while it is essentially a bluff, I also feel like we have decent equity if we are called..and I think he is possibly folding AQ here even, with my image...

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  JodaB. on Mon Mar 04, 2013 3:46 am

Superman wrote:

I am the BB, so I only have the limper and the raiser...

Like I say, I am not concerned about the limper, I don't think he is ever calling. He has been very active, limp folding a lot of hands, and raising some as well, the ones he has raised have been shown on several occasions and were strong...which, leads me to believe he is not calling here.

Our raiser, again, has been very active in say...the last 10 orbits or so....and while not on any two cards, is (I think) only gonna continue with a small portion of his hands.. (ak, of course, being one of them) and he has been picking at a few stacks in particular (weaker players) and I know he sees the limper folding as well..

Hmm..I figured the value of the pot was worth the steal, and yeah, while it is essentially a bluff, I also feel like we have decent equity if we are called..and I think he is possibly folding AQ here even, with my image...
its not crazy but remember if you shove 87s then you also shove t9s and all the other hands I said, so if your reads aren't accurate its a pretty big mistake.

I think the idea of it is good, its still a little marginal for me, I doubt btp would do this.

I don't think we should expect any AQ to fold, and we have to remember the limper calls with JJ AK so thats at least some. The iso'er is priced in with alot of hands with his raise size.

not as crazy from the bb but I think JTs is the very bottom of my range here. But really I'd like to have an Ace or a King blocker so maybe A9s or A5s
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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:33 am

Yeah, I would have jammed jts there as well..lol (at that time) But yes, I see your point. And am now feeling like I probably got caught up in the moment of the game...and definitely could have waited for another spot...dammit..it just felt so good. lol

Lesson learned.

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:34 am

I would suspect that limper has JJ+ AQ+ about 1% of the time just from watching them..but, yes, can never rule it out entirely.

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  JodaB. on Mon Mar 04, 2013 12:16 pm

Superman wrote:I would suspect that limper has JJ+ AQ+ about 1% of the time just from watching them..but, yes, can never rule it out entirely.
the range you describe makes up 4.2% of the deck Wink So if hes limping every hand hes dealt then he has those hands 4.2 %.

If he limps any pair any bw, and most suited aces (20%) then he has jj+ aq+ 20% (4.2/20)of the time.
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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  Superman on Mon Mar 04, 2013 12:38 pm

I almost feel like I could have maybe min 3/4bet there...and then when he rejams I can still fold/call even though it's a much shorter stack...but still enough to work with and coming into position.

stupid destiny Wink

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

Post  JodaB. on Mon Mar 04, 2013 1:22 pm

Superman wrote:I almost feel like I could have maybe min 3/4bet there...and then when he rejams I can still fold/call even though it's a much shorter stack...but still enough to work with and coming into position.

stupid destiny Wink
this is why 20bbs is almost always a 3bet jam or fold. We can't really 3bet fold because once we 3bet its +ev to call. This will be more true with 87s than A6o etc.

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Re: let's see how bad this really was..

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