Two Tough Hands

[negreanu1985]

I'm hoping for advice on the following two hands I've posted on weaktight:

TT vs. One Over

AK vs. 3bet

The first is a tough spot with TT where I am trying to figure out a line that's not too nitty i.e. folding to hands I have beaten vs. the line I played which is just spewing chips whenever villain flops top pair.

The second is a hand which is similar to many others I've played where I 4bet with AK just to run into AA or KK or similarly 4bet KK and run into AA. I'm wondering if others have found villains typically only 3bet AA and KK in microstakes MTT's. If so, should we only 4bet AA? It seems wrong to fold AK or KK. I find it particularly the case when the 3bet is a non-all-in 3bet, as it seems people 3bet-shove wider than they just 3bet

[REEBS77]

I'm hoping for advice on the following two hands I've posted on weaktight:

TT vs. One Over

AK vs. 3bet

The first is a tough spot with TT where I am trying to figure out a line that's not too nitty i.e. folding to hands I have beaten vs. the line I played which is just spewing chips whenever villain flops top pair.

The second is a hand which is similar to many others I've played where I 4bet with AK just to run into AA or KK or similarly 4bet KK and run into AA. I'm wondering if others have found villains typically only 3bet AA and KK in microstakes MTT's. If so, should we only 4bet AA? It seems wrong to fold AK or KK. I find it particularly the case when the 3bet is a non-all-in 3bet, as it seems people 3bet-shove wider than they just 3bet

Overall I think they are played fine.  The first one u can't just b/f cus that would be too exploitable ... His non all in raise makes me think he's stronger but needs reads.  It's going to come down to how often u think he plays draws like this.  In game I prob say fuck him and get it in w no other info.

Second hand is an easy get in w 25 bb IMO.  However if u think they only 3 bet/5 bet w AA/KK then we would def not 4 bet.  My experience in micros is that there is a huge variety in the types of opponents we face.  Seems more and more regs are adding micros to fill their screens.  So applying a general rule to all opponents is going to be very bad.  If we were say 40bb eff then I might just flat his 3bet but not w 25bb.

[JodaB.]

 In game I prob say fuck him and get it in w no other info.

I thought everything was well put and played by both of you, except you both seem to have enacted this thought which i wanted to highlight.  When this happens and we think about re raising, we still can ask if its for value or a bluff.  This line of thought I think leads us to a few more questions which I think are important considerations we might have missed.

I'll leave it at that and see how we feel about it and whether I'm just trying to sound cool.. 

[REEBS77]

 In game I prob say fuck him and get it in w no other info.

I thought everything was well put and played by both of you, except you both seem to have enacted this thought which i wanted to highlight.  When this happens and we think about re raising, we still can ask if its for value or a bluff.  This line of thought I think leads us to a few more questions which I think are important considerations we might have missed.

I'll leave it at that and see how we feel about it and whether I'm just trying to sound cool.. 

Been thinking the past few days before replying...

Yeah we are basically turning it into a bluff. No worse hands will call / play this way. I really don't think he's going to fold enough to make the bluff profitable either after raising the amount he did. I think if my maths are on spot, he'd have to fold ~17% of the time to make it immediately profitable.

So is flatting the best to keep his range widest? Then do we call all in when flush hits? If he crams this turn we are in big big trouble I think.... check fold?? We would be calling ~1k to win $4k.... are we ahead one in four? doubt it....

I think Im more confused now then on the weekend....

[JodaB.]

Yeah we are basically turning it into a bluff.  No worse hands will call / play this way.

Ya in general when we make a raise like this, it needs to make sense, here once we ask 'value' or a 'bluff' it starts to seem confusing. Any time that happens we can expect we (or should check for) there is a better line. What we don't want to do is evoke our emotional side of our brain and just say "if im beat im beat"....there is still analysis beyond that which is useful I think.

 I really don't think he's going to fold enough to make the bluff profitable either after raising the amount he did.  I think if my maths are on spot, he'd have to fold ~17% of the time to make it immediately profitable.  

17% might be enough, im not sure if you factored in our showdown value, yet I still think we can play more profitably. I thought we were ip, but it doesn't really matter. If we shove villain folds the hands we beat usually and calls with hands that beat us (cause we rep at least a jack).

So is flatting the best to keep his range widest?

Yes to me this is clearly our play, and we should do it, before psychologically worrying about future streets. Kinda like we call and then whatever happens we go ask someone later, but never consider re raising because we aren't sure about the rest of the hand. It sounds like I'm commenting on how to think, but i really mean this is how we should represent the math in our head.

 Then do we call all in when flush hits?  If he crams this turn we are in big big trouble I think.... check fold??  We would be calling ~1k to win $4k.... are we ahead one in four?  doubt it....  

These questions i think are more important for reebs, where as the previous quoted material is directed more to negreanu1985. We already highly suspect flatting is best, and the rest is what to do on the turn. Villain is almost all in anyways so we shouldn't expect to see a river, even if we check villain will often jam all made hands and draws. If a flush card comes, we should extend our plan from the flop. A flush card might be a hand villain bluffs with, and if we jam we rep a jack or better, and sometimes even a flush draw. So we should check call on a flush card and expect villain to jam most of the time anyways. If we check and the river brings 4 to flush (i call it that), then we can check call with Th.

If its not a flush card we will often just jam if its a brick, but again we might check call (or even check fold on another over card (q K A). We could usually get a timing tell a little bit too.

The bottom line is we shouldn't be afraid to check call all streets, knowing that we kept alot of air in villains range, and we always get good odds to call vs such a weak range.

I think Im more confused now then on the weekend....

I hope thats straighter, the main idea is to take lines that are clear value or bluff, and then once we are very solid preflop and flop, then the turns and rivers play themselves out. I find often players get overwhelmed about turn and river, so they take the easiest line out of the flop. The line is often not optimal and since we face so many flop spots like this, its a lot of ev we could pick up by flatting and letting villains spew vs our marginal holdings.

Just to reiterate, its A LOT of lost ev

[REEBS77]

the 17% didn't include for any of our showdown...

So, I often hear the term "cashing in our equity" in my stable.... can we discuss this - when to do it, etc?  Just feel a bit confused still about it.  thx.

Also, what bluffs are left in his range after the turn comes flush?  I cant come up with any, but maybe I'm wrong.  Just the OESD which I don't think play like this anyways.  Any of the flush draws that are still in his range also have pairs better than our TT.

Assuming a preflop range of top 31%ish - AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s:

On flop, we have ~20.9% eq vs top pair +, FDs, OESD, and the combo draws.  Says our hand is best ~21% of the time.

Once the turn brings Kh, vs above cont range, we have 19% eq.  Interesting to note that it says hand is best only 6% of the time, vs range being best 94%.  Why the difference?

[JodaB.]

the 17% didn't include for any of our showdown...

So, I often hear the term "cashing in our equity" in my stable.... can we discuss this - when to do it, etc?  Just feel a bit confused still about it.  thx.

I think this is referring to basically protecting our equity, or collecting dead money. I think there is def a time to do it, but not to liberally. As a general rule, in icm heavy spots we want to pick up the pot vs showndown. Sometimes we have a choice between two likely +ev lines, and we'll take the one that involves less chance of showndown. Its quite rare to do this in a chip ev spot. Same if I get two equal spots where im 1)effectively all in 2)i have 5bbs more than the oppenent. Then I am likely to milk the spot if i am not to be put all in on later streets. Those are general rules but we can always look at spots. I am def inline with that thinking tho, I often take a line that is less ev but rakes the equity in early in a hand because of icm.

Also, what bluffs are left in his range after the turn comes flush?  I cant come up with any, but maybe I'm wrong.  Just the OESD which I don't think play like this anyways.  Any of the flush draws that are still in his range also have pairs better than our TT.

I forget to mention when they miss our equity goes through the roof when they only have on card to come.

Assuming a preflop range of top 31%ish - AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s:

On flop, we have ~20.9% eq vs top pair +, FDs, OESD, and the combo draws.  Says our hand is best ~21% of the time.

on the turn though we are getting well over 4 to 1 on a call aren't we (I didn't do the math).

Once the turn brings Kh, vs above cont range, we have 19% eq.  Interesting to note that it says hand is best only 6% of the time, vs range being best 94%.  Why the difference?

not sure what you are asking here. We expect if we are getting it in on ANY turn, and never folding that we will not really lose ev by doing so. But if villain will fold hands we beat on the flop, but possibly make a mistake on the turn then its going to be slightly more.

I don't expect alot of hands, but we expect their range to be slightly wider regardless. As a last caveat, we might do the math here and find out shove flop is better by a small marginal (I still suspect its not), but the point is we should def consider flat over jam in spots like this, rather than just say "well if im beat im beat". Take our equity is good lots, but in chip ev spots we get paid more than good regs by sucking in as much ev as possible in "trivial" spots.

[REEBS77]

we are calling 1014 to win 3747 on turn = 27%

My question that you didn't know what I was asking was .... Flopzilla shows you two things under the area where you put in your own hand (dead cards). It shows your equity vs range equity, and also shows how often each hand is best. Guess I was just asking why the drastic difference between the two examples above. On the flop, the eq of our hand is very similar to the amount of times we are best, but once we add the turn card, it drops off to 6% of the time we are good, while our eq shows 19% still. Maybe I've got an error?


"I forget to mention when they miss our equity goes through the roof when they only have on card to come."

Does it though? From what I can see, we are in bad, bad shape if he only raises flop with the hands I mentioned. Do you think he bluff raises flop like this often or something? Cus if that were the case, I would agree with you.

[JodaB.]

we are calling 1014 to win 3747 on turn = 27%

My question that you didn't know what I was asking was .... Flopzilla shows you two things under the area where you put in your own hand (dead cards).  It shows your equity vs range equity, and also shows how often each hand is best.  Guess I was just asking why the drastic difference between the two examples above.  On the flop, the eq of our hand is very similar to the amount of times we are best, but once we add the turn card, it drops off to 6% of the time we are good, while our eq shows 19% still.  Maybe I've got an error?

Should just be simple combinatorics.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/sanity-check-88-hand-1199549/

now i understand that thread, I really think the answer is 90+ or something, but thats because the questions is: How often do you think you're ahead?

And I suspect people ignored it and looked at their equity instead. How often we are ahead doesn't seem immediately useful to me...

"I forget to mention when they miss our equity goes through the roof when they only have on card to come."

Does it though?  From what I can see, we are in bad, bad shape if he only raises flop with the hands I mentioned.  Do you think he bluff raises flop like this often or something?  Cus if that were the case, I would agree with you.

Well the idea is their turn range will be wider than their call flop range, im not commententing on the math of this specific spot, but that re raise jamming the flop as a default is prob a leak.

but we should def put some bluff in their range, and id be cautious about jamming flop and cutting those hands from their range.

[REEBS77]

thx I will have a read.  I didn't really know how useful it is either, just curious more than anything.

"Well the idea is their turn range will be wider than their call flop range"

This I don't get, and maybe its something simple I'm not seeing... How can his range change on turn?

If its top pair +, FDs, OESDs ... that we think he's raising flop with, how can it be any wider on the turn?

EDIT:  I see what's up here.... NM ... It was simple as I expected, was just not reading ur quote properly.

[JodaB.]

EDIT: I see what's up here.... NM ... It was simple as I expected, was just not reading ur quote properly

Good cause i was running out of bullshit to throw at you!


keep in mind while grinding 25+ tables, i can't always crunch the numbers or read the ranges. I'm just confident about the general concepts

[REEBS77]

EDIT:  I see what's up here.... NM ... It was simple as I expected, was just not reading ur quote properly

Good cause i was running out of bullshit to throw at you!


keep in mind while grinding 25+ tables, i can't always crunch the numbers or read the ranges. I'm just confident about the general concepts  

ya ya no worries. I just wanna get things clear in my mind before moving on.

thx buddy.

[sngking]

Great discussion here!

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