Post flop plan?

[JodaB.]

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/
$3.19+$0.31

Stacks:
UTG 6,062 15bb
UTG+1 5,070 13bb
Hero (MP1) 14,933 37bb
MP2 7,877 20bb
CO 7,220 18bb
BTN 5,292 13bb
SB 14,140 35bb
BB 8,706 22bb

Blinds: 200/400 Ante 50

Pre-Flop: (1,000, 8 players) Hero is MP1 As Jc
2 folds, Hero raises to 800, 2 folds, BTN calls 800, 2 folds

Flop: 9d Js Kh (2,600, 2 players)

Hero's plan?

[REEBS77]

I think my plan would be to bet flop for value. If we get raised, I fold, knowing Im likely behind. There isn't really any draws that should raise us, so I think I am okay with this. Not sure checking here is good since I think the largest part of his range is marginal one pair hands that could outdraw us if we give him a free turn.

I suppose villain will call us with any K in his range, weaker jacks, 1 pair/draw hands like 9T, maybe some strong 9s, and a few monsters like set of 9s, and two pair - though I think some villians raise flop with these. No reads on villian leads me to assume that monsters are a pretty small part of his range, since JJ, KK, AK, AA, QQ prob all get 3 bet pre. I also assume for now that villian is not capable of floating with air so I take air out of his range (if he calls).

[JodaB.]

I like your plan if we are effectively deeper. My issue with betting the flop and folding is we potentially fold a lot of equity with really good odds. Its true he'll often have Kx, but it doesn't take much worse hands in his range to make it a profitable call I'm sure. This coupled with the idea that betting will fold out any air of his. I don't like to ever say I don't expect him to float but here its really hard because most bw has a piece and the only floats are really hands like 56 67 78.

[REEBS77]

lol misread btn's stack size. yeah bet/fold is prob not good haha.

Is there where I tell you to never make me look bad again?

[JodaB.]

lol misread btn's stack size. yeah bet/fold is prob not good haha.

Is there where I tell you to never make me look bad again?

Looks like we're the only ones playin so far. Do you change your plan then based on his stack size?

[Smoker.B.]

I have no problem leading on this board, only really scared of Kx

problem if we c-bet is that we run into a close pot odds call... (kind of like the hand i posted prior)

[RWPKRPLR1]

I would check, he doesn't seem like a decent player. If he bets I fold, if he checks I bet turn for value.

[REEBS77]

I don't like to ever say I don't expect him to float but here its really hard because most bw has a piece and the only floats are really hands like 56 67 78.

I just learned something recently... When hand reading, generally we can lump hands into three categories post flop... Monsters, Marginal Hands, and Air/Draws. The hands that fit into these categories change on every street based on the board and villains prior range. If we can eliminate even one of these groupings of hands completely, then making the correct moves becomes easy to spot...

Now, question... If we can completely take airballs/draws out of villains range, what adjustments should we be making on future streets?

[REEBS77]

lol misread btn's stack size. yeah bet/fold is prob not good haha.

Is there where I tell you to never make me look bad again?

Looks like we're the only ones playin so far. Do you change your plan then based on his stack size?

Ugh ya now that the eff stacks arent 35 in my head, its a lot tougher of a decision without any info on villain... I prob bet/sigh call and hate my life in game to be honest... Let me think about it more tonite.

[Smoker.B.]

check calling flop/ leading turn might be more optimal here the more i think about it

[JodaB.]

check calling flop/ leading turn might be more optimal here the more i think about it

you still have to put your hand ranges in the aj thread before V.I.C.K.I. boots your ass outa here

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