Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

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Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Wed Feb 20, 2013 10:43 pm


villain is 13/11 3k hands, no notes (never gets outa line)

3bet/fold...3bet/call....3bet shove, flat, fold?


No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/
$3.19+$0.31

Stacks:
UTG 38,007 24bb
UTG+1 6,311 4bb
MP1 17,925 11bb
MP2 10,212 6bb
CO 24,005 15bb
Hero (BTN) 41,988 26bb
SB 18,266 11bb
BB 19,260 12bb

Blinds: 800/1,600 Ante 150

Pre-Flop: (3,600, 8 players) Hero is BTN Js Ah
UTG raises to 3,200, 4 folds, Hero ???
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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  Superman on Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:34 am

We are ok with the bottom of his range, (a slider 11%).. prob. gonna 3 bet (6800 or so) and fold to a jam...if I did the math quick enough in my head, pot will be about 42k and 30k for us to call??

Hmm...that's probably a call though...

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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:26 am

Superman wrote:We are ok with the bottom of his range, (a slider 11%).. prob. gonna 3 bet (6800 or so) and fold to a jam...if I did the math quick enough in my head, pot will be about 42k and 30k for us to call??

Hmm...that's probably a call though...
so hes raising 11% but obviously that not his utg range (pre antes though). So we expect him to almost always stack of utg here.

Generally with 20bbs effective (thats my cutoff) we will have to always 3bet/call, and is generally accepted to only 3bet shove. Maybe up to 25 is going to be a shove rather than 3bet call vs reggish types.

So we do have a tough time folding if we 3bet even though he 4bets a tight range. If he sees us 3bet fold here, then hes never folding again in this spot (ATo, 99 etc with 4bet always).

The other thing is if we 3bet/fold here then we don't need cards, thats important to remember. But one thing we do have is an Ace blocker, so in that case if we 3bet fold AJo here, then we should also 3bet fold every Ax right?

When we look at it like that it seems 3bet/folding isn't an effective line, and 3bet jamming seems to be extremely marginal and possible -ev. Most because this player is quite nitty, nittier than the average TAG reg.

Folding or Flatting seem to be better than 3betting to me....what about flatting?

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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  Superman on Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:43 am

We have position, but AJ sucks when we hit our flop (ace or jack high) and he leads into us...or check raises...

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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:49 am

Superman wrote:We have position, but AJ sucks when we hit our flop (ace or jack high) and he leads into us...or check raises...
Ya I think thats pretty simple, were flatting vs a strong range. Flatting with ep raises becomes non existent obviously around 26bbs, so theoretically its pretty much out from the get go.

Folding?
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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  Superman on Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:55 am

That was my first instinct honestly....but, maybe I don't hate the 3bet fold...he might fold some of his smaller pairs...88-1010? he might fold some KQ's (if they are in his utg range)..granted, we are ahead of those and don't really want them to fold..but they can cause us grief with the wrong flop...

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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:01 am

Superman wrote:That was my first instinct honestly....but, maybe I don't hate the 3bet fold...he might fold some of his smaller pairs...88-1010? he might fold some KQ's (if they are in his utg range)..granted, we are ahead of those and don't really want them to fold..but they can cause us grief with the wrong flop...
I actually think with no other factors its too thin, possibly if I was in the bb i might consider it? But if he folds those hands we are lucky to be 33% vs his range.
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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  Superman on Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:07 am

Do we have fold equity against this guy or does he know us too well? lol If we had some fold equity it could lend some credence to a 3b shove...even though it's on the heavy side.

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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:12 am

Superman wrote:Do we have fold equity against this guy or does he know us too well? lol If we had some fold equity it could lend some credence to a 3b shove...even though it's on the heavy side.
very little, and the more we have the stronger his range gets (fast). But I'm pretty confident if you add them together its not plus ev to 3bet in any way ;p
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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  Superman on Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:17 am

Fair enough, and I am ok with the fold moreso than the flat. I know we have position, but I also know my post flop game probably isn't anywhere near as good as it can be..

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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:28 am

Superman wrote:Fair enough, and I am ok with the fold moreso than the flat. I know we have position, but I also know my post flop game probably isn't anywhere near as good as it can be..
Ah thats the key point, how do our post flop games match up?

So 3betting isn't plus ev whether shove or 3bet/fold or 3bet call. He's just too tight, all his hands really beat us whether he folds them or not (maybe kqs).

We can't flat because its not theoretically correct we are too short.

Folding seems best because we've knocked out the other two choices.

Or is it? I'm going to postulate something strange...this hand is TOO good to fold.

Now you suggested.......how is this player post flop? He's obviously to tight for his own good...waaay to tight. Tighter than a tag reg. So his post flop is going to be awful! He only plays 10 hands in 100, and RARELY oop (if ever).

Plus, since hes not very good, but definitely a reg, hes gonna get a little antsy if he finds himself postflop oop. He certainly knows us, as should every reg since we play 30% of hands or more most of the time.

So we are going to 3bet......to ZERO.

With his poor postflop skills, position, and our image we actually TAKE INITIATIVE by FLATTING.




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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  Superman on Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:40 am

Alright...we flat

Axx rainbow flop... he leads into us for 1/2 pot. pot is what? 12k? So, now 18k in the pot, he has 25? behind (wish I could scroll back and see the numbers to make sure they are right)

xJx flop same thing, he leads...

The only time we have a chance post flop is if it's AJx or JJx...OR...he checks to us?

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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:45 am

Superman wrote:Alright...we flat

Axx rainbow flop... he leads into us for 1/2 pot. pot is what? 12k? So, now 18k in the pot, he has 25? behind (wish I could scroll back and see the numbers to make sure they are right)

xJx flop same thing, he leads...

The only time we have a chance post flop is if it's AJx or JJx...OR...he checks to us?
Ya thats a whole other topic, not needed here, we just need to know our postflop skills out weigh him and that he's tight. He won't fuck around postflop, he will check fold a lot, he might not cbet often, and he'll rarely double barrel, and almost never triple barrel.

Here I think he bet 2 streets and check folded the river (AXX) which I don't mind value betting because I think he triple barrels AK AQ.

The point is though that in some spots flatting acts like a minie 3bet and makes villain suspicious, since we really should never be flatting here (I'm really the only winning reg who flats in this spots as all others jam or fold).

This is the '3bet to Zero' and BTP absolutely loves it.
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Re: Prelop 3bet/flat/fold spot?

Post  JodaB. on Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:17 pm

Here another hand vs. a good reg who I have a lot of history with....

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/
$3.19+$0.31

Stacks:
UTG 48,508 30bb
UTG+1 22,249 14bb
MP1 24,477 15bb
Hero (MP2) 30,107 19bb
CO 9,101 6bb
BTN 11,645 7bb
SB 22,628 14bb
BB 33,439 21bb

Blinds: 800/1,600 Ante 150

Pre-Flop: (3,600, 8 players) Hero is MP2 Ks Qc
2 folds, MP1 raises to 3,200, Hero calls 3,200, 4 folds

Flop: 2c 4c 2h (10,000, 2 players)
MP1 bets 4,000, Hero goes all-in 26,757, MP1 folds

Final Pot: 18,000

Hero wins 40,757 (net +10,650)

MP1 lost 7,350
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