river line?

[JodaB.]

Villain is Kthegreat1 a well establish strong mtt reg as far as I know, lots of history vs the player, im lagish obv.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/
$3.19+$0.31

Stacks:
UTG 1,230 41bb
Hero (UTG+1) 2,970 99bb
MP1 3,000 100bb
MP2 2,970 99bb
MP3 1,340 45bb
CO 1,455 49bb
BTN 1,710 57bb
SB 3,005 100bb
BB 3,320 111bb

Blinds: 15/30

Pre-Flop: (45, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1 Ts Ah
1 fold, Hero raises to 81, 6 folds, BB calls 51

Flop: Kc 7h Js (177, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 105, BB calls 105

Turn: Td (387, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: Qs (387, 2 players)
BB bets 210
Hero???

[Superman]

Villain is Kthegreat1 a well establish strong mtt reg as far as I know, lots of history vs the player, im lagish obv.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/
$3.19+$0.31

Stacks:
UTG 1,230 41bb
Hero (UTG+1) 2,970 99bb
MP1 3,000 100bb
MP2 2,970 99bb
MP3 1,340 45bb
CO 1,455 49bb
BTN 1,710 57bb
SB 3,005 100bb
BB 3,320 111bb

Blinds: 15/30

Pre-Flop: (45, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1 Ts Ah
1 fold, Hero raises to 81, 6 folds, BB calls 51

Flop: Kc 7h Js (177, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 105, BB calls 105

Turn: Td (387, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: Qs (387, 2 players)
BB bets 210
Hero???

Not sure what the question is here? Raise. Hopefully he doesn't believe us, and doesn't have the ace. If he does..oh well. chop chop.
I think any raise is polarizing...so, just jam it in..he is probably used to seeing that from you.

[JodaB.]

Are you raising for value or a bluff? If value...what worse hands call?

He knows im aggroish but he also know I know the difference between a bluff and value. I expect him to be either on my level or better.

[Superman]

He might call a set of queens or the dumb end (99) off if he doesn't believe you have the ace...? Regardless, nothing beats us and we can't get any value unless we bet. I don't think the amount is a question...

[Superman]

He knows im aggroish but he also know I know the difference between a bluff and value.

Which is why I jam.. air or nuts.. up to him to decide.

[JodaB.]

Lemme just describe our though processes a little

when he flats pre he has a flatting hand, suited bw, maybe kq kjo, pairs, some suited connectors (few). To check call that flop he either hit or has a draw, almost zero floats because I double barrel a lot here obviously and have a decent preflop range.

I check the turn to pot control a lot, I continue to bet with all made hands and with my air usually. He definitely has a check raise range, sets two pair straight etc.

When he leads out he may be betting for thin value, but he'll often be bet/folding anything less than the nuts. Besides, Its hard for him to be legitimately value betting me here with less than an ace because I'd have to be calling with the 3rd nuts or worse?

If he was going to call a raise without the nuts he'd definitely just check call to turn his hand into a bluff catcher?

[JodaB.]

He knows im aggroish but he also know I know the difference between a bluff and value.

Which is why I jam.. air or nuts.. up to him to decide.

Ya hes a step above that, hes already chosen a fairly un exploitable range, and he's analyzed each of us from each others points of view before he made that bet.....I know your just giving an expression but just to be clear....he already knows what hes doing if I jam.

[Superman]

So you aren't raising here??? We have the nuts. The ONLY way he calls with less than the nuts is if we do something silly to make him not believe we do... He can lead here trying to slow you down and get a cheap showdown if you don't have the nuts. And if he has the nuts as well, so be it. Same result as if we just called.

[JodaB.]

He can lead here trying to slow you down and get a cheap showdown if you don't have the nuts. And if he has the nuts as well, so be it. Same result as if we just called.

This is a great spot for you then, because he's too good, if he wants a cheap showdown he'll either check/call (evaluate), or bet/fold. Because of this he will pretty much NEVER bet call worse.

My point is we have the nuts, but we can't get value from it.

[Superman]

But we still have to bet it.

[JodaB.]

But we still have to bet it.

I get your point, but I can honestly say I'm indifferent because this opponent is absolutely not capable of calling with worse.

[Superman]

I get that part...but if he folds, he never gets to know if we did have the nuts. He will have to assume we did..but it might make him wonder in the future...

[JodaB.]

I get that part...but if he folds, he never gets to know if we did have the nuts. He will have to assume we did..but it might make him wonder in the future...

Perhaps, its just he knows I rarely have air by the time we hit the river, so I have to be capable of turning sets and two pairs into a bluff, which he doesn't know that (its very hard to ASSUME I am doing it and hes never seen me do it cause its rare). And then he has to believe that I think he folds enough (because he certainly has an Ace here a lot). So really he's rarely folding and if he is I have him beat with alot of sets and two pair that I can call and not jam.

I think he'd bet fold and never think about it again if i jam and he doesn't have it.

[Superman]

But someone else watching might think about it...at least if you don't have to show it..it is never 100%

[JodaB.]

But someone else watching might think about it...at least if you don't have to show it..it is never 100%

ok so we are looking for a reason to get it in, someone watching might be worth it, or he certainly isn't 100% like you say (few spots every really are 100%).

I'll be honest I flatted here. I know him enough that I don't get value, and thought maybe flatting shows that I read his whole game and I know he doesn't call with worse and I know he knows that and so on.

I didn't feel silly even though everyone else snap jams because they have the nuts. Funny side note, mark and I's conflict started pretty much when I checked back a boat in a spot he'd only call with quads or something. He was calling me Jennifer tilly, cause she did it once. I had a reason there (or whatever maybe I didn't), but here I actually have the absolute nuts.

But I felt like it was a strong meta game thing to just flat the nuts so I choose that.

Looking back there is a better way.

He is a reg I will face almost everyday for possibly my whole career. I still expect to get snapped off by only the nuts however we can affect FUTURE iterations of these spots (and others) but choose a bet sizing that stands out (95% of the pot?). This might cause some player to note that we do this with the nuts, then later we can come back and simulate the 'nut' range villain noted us with and do it with air.

In this we we created 'meta' ranges that don't exist for most people because they either shove flat or fold. Because our opponent will remember us, we can cause him to adjust in a predictable way.

Since we have no really other option than to go for max value, we should use this spot to manipulate our opponents adjustments.

[Superman]

I won't disagree with this thought train. And that was kind of my thought behind the whole (if they can't see it for sure, they don't 100% know) which might have effect on future outcomes.

This certainly fits the bill for you, as you see many of the same players over and over...I am not seeing that many. More this week, as I have been hammering mtt's pretty hard (for me), trying to cram some of this stuff into my brain so I can completely fuck with people come live poker time.. (where a lot of this won't work because live players suck) lol

[REEBS77]

What about making an odd ball raise like just barely more than min? I know for most, this villain would see right thru that, but ur yodabat and u do weird stuff like that. We still have enough of a stack that he could almost view it as weakness coming from u, which might cause him to 3 bet bluff???

Just looking at the options. Personally I don't like the flat. No one at the table will be at ur level of thinking except u and villain, if they ae even watching the hand.

And further, I think anyone who is watching is much more likely to think it was either misclick or u read the board wrong. I find it hard to believe that u can manipulate their adjustments later on, there just aren't that's many ppl making adjustments IMO anyways. I dunno.

[JodaB.]

What about making an odd ball raise like just barely more than min? I know for most, this villain would see right thru that, but ur yodabat and u do weird stuff like that. We still have enough of a stack that he could almost view it as weakness coming from u, which might cause him to 3 bet bluff???

In a way thats what ill be doing, however its for meta game purposes only, this player will NEVER 3bet this river as a bluff, HES TOO GOOD. He's not going to put me on a bluff when I jam, he'll never call or re raise with worse than an ace here. He's already decided if he is calling or folding. I think if we think differently we are underestimating, him and his image of me.

But we can train him to think we have the nuts in the future by making a bet size that he might note.

I don't expect anyone else to watch the hand really whatsoever, so its def not for them, but this player is likely to note anything weird that I do.

edit: Just to be clear its def worth considering a raise to induce, but because he can hand read (likely well), I have to not just make my sizing look like a bluff, I have to reasonably represent a bluffing hand (from my range). This also means I have to think he has enough hands in his range for a bluff to be profitable, which I don't really think he has. He has almost no air here, and has mostly nuts and medium hands he will always bet fold. He has to turn a medium strength hand into a bluff, when he could have just check called it in the first place possibly. Furthermore he has to believe that I actually think he will fold often enough. I don't think any of that is credible enough to tell a story that will induce him to spazz.

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